Amazon Can Beat the iPad
At the risk of giving away the ending, the Xoom is not going to beat the iPad. It’s not that the Xoom isn’t a compelling device (though I would argue it’s barely a competitive one) - it’s simply that it’s attacking Apple where Apple is strongest.
You don’t beat the iPad by playing to its strengths. The Xoom attempts to copy the iPad but falls short on user experience, polish, price, and even functionality (once apps are taken into consideration). These are the places where the iPad is strongest.
So who can beat the iPad, and how? The “who,” at least for now, is Amazon. The “how” is the Kindle. Or, rather, the Kindle as it could be.
Amazon is positioned to compete with Apple in the tablet space more than Motorola, more than HP, more than even Google or Microsoft.
Amazon already has the pieces in place: they have a killer distribution network (Amazon.com) in place to counter the App Store. They have a wide range of retail partners in place for customers to try their device in person. They have experience pushing price-aggressive hardware with the Kindle. They have an extensive digital content library spanning both audio, video, and now apps, and legions of customers with credit cards enabled for one-click purchasing. They also - and this counts - are not Apple.
Apple was once upon a time a relatively countercultural company. Macs were a sign of computing defiance. “Think Different” meant something basic and literal. Now, iPads are on every flight and iPhones are more common than drinks in most restaurants. Apple has built up a large and vocal opposition, most of whom are foaming at the mouth searching for a viable iPad killer. The problem is that to date, most iPad killers are really just iPad wannabes.
Here is how you differentiate a tablet from the iPad and appeal to these geeks at the same time:
1. Don’t try to be “thinner than the iPad 2”. Apple will probably win.
2. Don’t try to outperform the iPad 2 - Apple will probably win. Especially in 3D graphics.
3. Do make it lighter than the iPad 2. Preferably a lot.
4. Do give it a switchable-backlight LCD or equivalent technology (like the Pixel Qi). Remember, this is a Kindle.
5. Don’t pre-load Flash.
6. Package a Kindle app (with in-app shopping), a killer web browser, and basic PIM and media apps.
7. Sell it for as little as possible, even if it’s barely profitable. $299 would be a hell of a price point.
8. That’s all.
The moral of the story is that if you have to undercut the iPad 2 on price (which you do), you are also going to have to undercut the iPad 2 on features. This is okay. In fact, it’s a good thing.
Remember when Nintendo sold a trillion Wiis even though the PS3 was better at everything? Then could do that because the Wii lacked features that drove cost up, but not features that drove consumers away.
The proof that Amazon can do this is that they already are - people are buying Kindles in addition to iPads. Hell, even John Gruber has a Kindle. This is because - deep breath - it’s more satisfying to read on a Kindle.
But the Kindle does not offer a feature set that makes it a viable replacement for an iPad, so people buy both. What if they didn’t have to? If a Kindle could do enough - not everything, but enough - of what an iPad does, and still retain the essence of a Kindle, it would sell a lot. As long as it was cheap.
The essence of a Kindle is long battery life, an e-ink display, and wireless syncing.
The essence of an iPad is a vibrant color display, a thriving multimedia ecosystem, and robust web and PIM software.
You don’t need aluminum unibody design, Flash, dual cameras or even a particularly fast processor to do that. Just make a Kindle with a switchable screen, a Webkit browser, and access to Amazon apps, music, and movies. You’re done.
(Addendum the First: If all of this sounds an awful lot like a Nook Color, that’s because Barnes and Noble gets it. But I think you need a matte, e-ink screen.)
(Addendum the Second: I do understand that there is a very real contingent out there who prefer reading on the iPad to a Kindle. I count myself part of this group. I don’t mind the weight, like having a backlight, and don’t mind the experience of reading on the screen. I do wish the text was sharper, but that’s a minor complaint. Here’s the thing: The “cheap” version of the iPad exists already: It’s the Nook Color, and it’s $249. I think what it lacks is a differentiator to make it more than an iPad, which is what an e-ink screen could provide.)
